This year's home market, which is not too popular, is in this traditional sales peak season of "nine gold and ten silver". Because of the outbreak of market demand and the rising price of raw materials, two "black swans" have successively suffered from the epidemic ", nowadays, like ants on hot pot, the terminal price does not rise, nor does it rise.
On the one hand, we have to face the upcoming Double Eleven Double Twelve promotion nodes, and on the other hand, the collective "price increase tide" of raw materials is everywhere. The wait-and-see atmosphere of consumers and home manufacturers has been pushed to a new high point. A common question is whether the price storm will come and when will the storm fall?
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concentrated demand and tight delivery
on October 15, according to the data jointly released by the circulation industry development department of the Ministry of Commerce and the China Building Materials Circulation Association, the national building materials and household prosperity index (BHI) rose 6.33 points month on month in September, the sales volume of building materials above the national scale increased by 14.99% in September home furnishing stores, and the two data made people feel the rare "warmth" during the year ".
In fact, this gratifying situation is not just beginning in September. Since the third quarter, head home furnishing enterprises have entered a high-growth channel. It is understood that I le home has continued to increase in production and sales, and the whole kitchen cabinet and whole house customization factories in Nanjing almost all produce at full capacity. Some securities agencies have issued a forecast that the revenue growth rate in the third quarter of 202020, KUKa, Zhibang home furnishing, goldenhome and jiangshanou faction will all exceed 20% year-on-year.
The direct factor to stimulate the emergence of this high-growth market is the new Crown epidemic "Black Swan". The demand for a large number of completed, house delivery and hard installation has been delayed. After about half a year of adjustment, the downstream household demand has recovered intensively in the near future. In addition, the second half of the year is the traditional sales peak season, Golden nine silver ten, Double Eleven Double Twelve e-commerce Festival, the custom of living in a new house before the Spring Festival and so on have all stimulated the explosive growth of users' household consumption.
Although it has not reached the state of short supply, the sudden increase in demand brought by order repair in the post-epidemic era still puts pressure on the capacity output of some household enterprises, the products of some companies have begun to show the phenomenon of tight delivery and even out of stock.
The price of raw materials has risen to another black swan
if the internal increase in production and sales are still within the controllable range of manufacturers, then the collective "price increase tide" of raw materials flying everywhere is evolving into another "Black Swan" in the household industry ".
Taking Wood as an example, most of the plate furniture brands in famous spots in our country depend on imported wood. However, the peripheral timber market generally rose. For this reason, the German kitchen furniture Industry Association (VdDK) explained on September 21 that oligarchs of timber enterprises were reducing supply to force prices to rise, the current supply will not be able to meet the current increasing demand for wood base materials. In the United States, timber futures prices have soared by nearly 200 percent since the low point in early April. While domestic logs rose twice.
In addition, the price of sponge rose 7 times, the price of carton rose 5 times, the glass rose 20%, and the steel rose 247 yuan from the previous month ..... paint, leather, mixed materials, accessories, most raw materials related to the industrial chain such as freight are rising prices, and the circle of friends of home owners are constantly being refreshed by various "price increase notices. I have to say that the price has increased by annually, especially this year.
The price changes of upstream raw materials will naturally be directly transmitted to downstream furniture enterprises. More than one person in charge of household enterprises said that the price increase of raw materials will push the price of terminal furniture to keep rising. Foshan Shunde Furniture Association recently also publicly suggested that due to the uncertain price of materials in the central plains of the industrial chain, the price may still be raised in the fourth quarter of this year.
The price increase of terminal retail industry is not obvious yet.
Here comes the question. As the major cost of furniture manufacturing, under the pressure of rising costs in the upstream supply chain, why didn't consumers feel the rising price of furniture strongly this year?
The relevant person in charge of our home said that the company did not issue a price increase notice within the year. "Our sales volume is relatively large, and the purchase volume of various raw materials is also relatively large, so we have strong bargaining power and the cost can be controlled to be lower than the average level of the industry."
it is understood that the head enterprises such as home furnishing, Sofia and oupai widely adopt advanced industrial 4.0 flexible production, which makes the utilization rate of raw materials at the leading level. In addition, design, research and development, production, the cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures of each chain of sales make the cost pressure brought by the rise of raw materials to these enterprises relatively less.
It is generally believed that although there is a large pressure of rising costs, it is not easy to say that the price will rise this year. At present, it is the traditional sales peak season in the home furnishing industry. In order to sprint for the performance in the second half of the year, many brands have expressed that they can carry it out, and there is no large-scale price increase. Some enterprises only make minor adjustments.
However, the atmosphere of the terminal selling price is still on the verge. Some furniture brands have seen a round of price increases, and Chivas furniture has also announced a nationwide price increase since October 9.
Lenovo around 2017, under the double high pressure of environmental protection and raw material price increase, several grand dragon enterprises took the lead, which immediately triggered the wardrobe at that time, the collective price increase tide of many industries such as wooden doors and floors shows that for today's market situation, "it is human feelings not to rise in the next few months, and it is also reasonable to rise". Consumers and household enterprises should be prepared for this price storm.
(Image Source: Liangpin Tesco official website, invasion and deletion)
in fact, it is a long-term game.
In fact, in order to cope with various pressures this year, many big brands have strengthened the product structure strategy of "grasping with both hands", pushing small profits but quick turnover of special products with one hand, and promoting high-end products with higher profits with the other hand plus-sized.
"One trend this year is that some first-line home brands with good cash flow Foundation and scale advantages turn special offers or series promotions that were originally launched irregularly into normalized sales. For example, this year's hot activity of giving Sealy mattress to my home, and the upgrade of formaldehyde-free Add Le cross-band veneer with +99 yuan, as well as online marketing such as live streaming and goods of big brands...... These promotions don't make money on the surface, but they actually earn market share." People in the industry are speechless.
He said that in order to maintain a certain market share, small and medium-sized brands can only follow the footsteps of big brands such as my music, but according to this price, in fact, small and medium-sized enterprises are basically unprofitable, which will compress competitors for a long time, and harvest the market share and space of a large number of small and medium-sized furniture enterprises. However, the sales growth caused by big brands through special offers cannot be underestimated.
From the perspective of consumer classification, compared with price-sensitive consumers, the current round of rising prices of raw materials may not have obvious influence on high-end consumer groups such as villas, luxury houses, urban middle class and new middle class, this group of people will still buy medium and high-end household products. As far as my home is concerned, in the past two years, the sales volume of the whole house customization of about 3-50000 yuan has remained stable, while the sales volume of medium and high-end customization of 8-120000 Yuan has been increasing, among which the original research and development of Bastion series, zhishang series, Nebula series, Morandi series, Leo series and other new products are widely loved by this group of people due to their highly recognizable personality design and comfort.
Written at the end: Rationally speaking, every industry will encounter "Black Swan" such as epidemic and price increase in different periods ". However, accidents are not terrible. On the contrary, many "black swans" that spread to the whole society and the whole industry are an old innovation and survival of the fittest, which will force the industry to pass quality improvement, design research and development, automated production, channel control and other ways to achieve cost reduction and efficiency improvement, the ultimate benefit is consumers. In a word, those who cannot kill you will eventually make you stronger.
(Article Source: Liangpin Tesco official website, invasion and deletion)
