Recently, 14 of the 26 listed aluminum companies in A- share released the performance forecast for the first half of the year. According to Oriental Fortune Choice data, only one of the 14 companies lost money, and the other 13 were all profitable. Compared with the same period in 2021, 11 enterprises have achieved positive growth. Since the first half of 2022, the epidemic has repeatedly overlapped the escalation of geo-conflicts, leading to the ups and downs of aluminum prices.
Industry analysts said: "In the first half of the year, the price of aluminum was at a high level in the same period in recent years, and the profitability of aluminum enterprises was relatively good. At present, the performance forecast of listed companies in this industry is in line with market expectations." In terms of demand, although the real estate industry, as a large traditional aluminum user, has a low degree of prosperity, the consumption of automobiles and electric power has kept increasing, which has become the main responsibility for the increase of aluminum demand.
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In the first half of the year, aluminum prices showed a trend of first promotion and then suppression, and the overall profit of aluminum enterprises was good.
According to public data, since the first half of 2022, Shanghai aluminum once rushed to 24020 yuan/ton, approaching a record high. Lunalian reached a new high, up to $3766/ton. Aluminum prices are running at a high level, and many listed aluminum companies have announced a pre-increase in their performance. Industry analysts said that the overall upward trend of aluminum prices is mainly due to geo-conflict disturbances, which affect the supply of virgin aluminum on the one hand and push up European energy prices on the other hand, this leads to an increase in aluminum smelting costs.
Driven by LME, the profits of domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises rose to a high level. According to estimates, the average profit per ton of aluminum in the industry at that time reached about 6,000 yuan, and the production enthusiasm of enterprises was relatively high, which also stimulated the export of domestic aluminum products. However, after the Fed's radical interest rate hike and the repeated domestic epidemic, aluminum prices began to fall back. Among them, Hu aluminum once fell to 18600 yuan/ton, and Lun aluminum fell to 2420 dollars/ton. Although the aluminum price in the first half of the year showed a trend of first promotion and then suppression, the overall profit of aluminum enterprises was good.
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Construction real estate downturn, new energy vehicles drive aluminum product demand growth
construction real estate, transportation and power electronics are the three major fields of China's electrolytic aluminum terminal consumer market, its the total proportion exceeds60%. But according according to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, this year from January to May, the national real estate development investment decreased by 4.0% year-on-year, commercial housing sales area decreased year-on-year23.6%, new housing construction area declines30.6%...... Data Display,2022 year from January to May, the total output of aluminum profiles was 2.2332 million tons, a decrease of 50000 tons year on year.
According to the data, in the first half of 2022, the production and sales volume of automobiles were 12.117 million and 12.057 million respectively, and the performance of production and sales volume in June was even better than that of the same period in history. In that month, the production and sales volume of automobiles were 2.499 million and 2.502 million respectively, the year-on-year growth was 28.2 percent and 23.8 percent respectively. Among them, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to increase, which will drive the rapid growth of aluminum product demand. According to the professional opinion, although the proportion of aluminum used in the construction real estate industry dropped from 32% in 2016 to 29% in 2021, the demand for aluminum in transportation, power electronics, packaging and other fields is blossoming more. Aluminum for transportation continues to rise, becoming the leading force in the growth of aluminum demand. Under the background of steady growth, new energy infrastructure is also expected to exert force. The construction of Photovoltaic and power grid or the promotion of aluminum for electronic and power industry have greatly improved.
