Since 2022, the international environment has become more complex and severe. The domestic epidemic situation has spread more, and the downward pressure on the economy has increased significantly. However, in the second quarter, China's economy has overcome multiple pressure challenges and the economic stability has been further stabilized. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's GDP in the first half of the year was 56264.2 billion yuan, up 2.5 percent year-on-year, of which 0.4 percent in the second quarter was increased, and positive growth was achieved under pressure. By June, the epidemic situation has been effectively controlled, the supply chain of the industrial chain has been further restored, and the benefits of industrial enterprises have been significantly improved. The profits of industrial enterprises above the national scale have increased by 0.8 percent year-on-year. In the manufacturing industry of consumer goods, textile and clothing, the profit of furniture industry increased by 44.7% and 20.6% respectively. Specific to the National Building Materials and home furnishing market industry, in the first half of the year, under the comprehensive influence of factors such as the complex and severe international environment, the downturn of the real estate market and the obvious impact of the epidemic, the National Building Materials and home furnishing market withstood heavy pressure, the development of the industry is extremely resilient.
In the first half of 2022, the overall "sense of body" of the National Building Materials home market is still not good, but the overall terminal data of the industry is not bad, according to the project approved by the circulation industry development department of the Ministry of Commerce, according to the BHI (National Building Materials home Prosperity Index) released by China Building Materials Circulation Association, BHI indexed performance in the first half of the year is better than last year. From January to June, 2022, the cumulative sales of building materials above the national scale home furnishing stores was 637.171 billion yuan, up 32.47 percent year on year. Behind the data, there must be its internal logic. The specific analysis is as follows:
First of all, the building materials home circulation market, as the downstream industry of the real estate market, is closely related to it and has a certain degree of lag. According to data from China Index Research Institute, the sales area of commercial housing in China in 2021was 1.794 billion square meters, the highest in the three years of 2019, 2020 and 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, an increase of 4.6 percent over January-December 2019. Commercial housing sold in 2021entered the delivery cycle in 2022, which brought direct benefits to the National Building Materials and home terminal circulation market. However, in the first half of 2022, the downward pressure on the national real estate market was relatively large, the market confidence was insufficient, and the impact of the epidemic was superimposed. The overall supply and demand of the market and the transaction were not significantly warmer, the National Building Materials home market seems to be out of the special market independent of the real estate market, and is also related to its lagging decoration.
On the other hand, there are now 0.3 billion existing houses in China, and about half of them have the need to redecorate. This market has a lot of space. With the continuous release of consumption upgrading and improved home demand, the market share of building materials home dominated by the re-decoration of storage houses (secondary and tertiary) is also gradually increasing. In the future, the association between the building materials home market industry and the new house market will gradually weaken, and the stock Real Estate redecoration market will become the main force driving the growth of China's building materials home market.
Secondly, the new coronavirus epidemic has lasted for nearly 3 years, and it is still necessary to recognize that the epidemic has brought long-term, far-reaching and multiple impacts to the whole building materials and household industry. In 2021, the sales volume of building materials above the national scale increased by 54.43 percent year-on-year home furnishing stores, which was mainly caused by the special situation of the outbreak of the previous year. In fact, last year was still at an unknown stage of the development direction of the epidemic, and the decoration market was still under repression and wait-and-see, while this year the epidemic showed a state of multi-point distribution, with the decision-making and deployment of efficient overall planning of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the rigid demand for building materials and household consumption in non-epidemic control areas is continuously released. The gradual implementation of various national policies of stabilizing economy and promoting consumption has stimulated the consumption vitality of the building materials home market and made the market have a certain temperature.
The continuous development of the epidemic may make many people spend money no longer "generous". However, unexpectedly, in terms of decoration, most decoration users do not want to lower their standards of quality life, green, kangyang, environmental protection and safe building materials and household products are increasingly favored by consumers, especially middle-class consumers. In the first half of 2022, the National Decoration budget increased by year on year (data source: tubatu Big Data Research Institute).
Thirdly, we should also take into account the "fault" between the supply side and the consumption side. The so-called Chunjiang plumbing duck prophet, the goods consumed by building materials household in the first half of the year should first be the inventory in the hands of building materials household sellers, secondly, it is transmitted to the production side, and the sensitivity of the market is much higher than that of production. For example, in the first half of the year, the output of sanitary ceramics in most sanitary ware producing areas declined to varying degrees. However, in fact, the decline of some production enterprises this year was mainly due to the decline of real estate projects, and some enterprises were dragged down by the debt crisis of many housing enterprises, the Engineering channel declined, and the real Terminal retail did not show a serious decline. In addition, although sellers sell inventory products, they dare not purchase large quantities of goods due to the uncertainty of the epidemic, which makes the production end feel worse. Therefore, enterprises need to pay more attention to distributor channels, store retail channels and emerging network channels. Of course, the epidemic has also accelerated the speed of industry integration and reshuffle. Some enterprises with insufficient innovation have already felt the difficulty of survival. The concentration of the industry is gradually increasing and the market competition is becoming more and more fierce.
In the future, the National Building Materials and home furnishing market will still face many uncertainties. The downward pressure of the real estate market is gradually being transmitted. Various new models and new trends are constantly emerging, and consumer groups and consumption habits are rapidly changing, fast integration and development of online and offline integration, etc. It is suggested that enterprises should treat the market changes rationally, grasp the current consumption promotion policy and the opportunities related to sinking the market, embrace new technologies, new channels, new models and new formats in an all-round way, and satisfy people's yearning for a better life.
